Weekly expected deaths model validation

Results across countries

Errors: Cumulative deaths week 10 to 27

Mean absolute percentage error
	DNK		ESP		FIN		FRATNP		GBR_SCO		NOR		SWE
	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M
3-year avg. weekly deaths	2.3	3.1	2.5	2.4	2.1	1.8	3.5	2.5	1.6	2.6	2.0	2.0	2.9	2.9
3-year avg. weekly mortality	2.2	3.4	2.2	2.2	3.2	3.1	2.3	2.0	2.0	2.4	2.3	3.7	3.2	4.1
5-year avg. weekly deaths	1.7	3.0	3.2	2.1	1.9	1.7	3.6	2.5	2.2	3.3	1.6	2.6	3.0	2.7
5-year avg. weekly mortality	2.5	4.5	2.3	2.6	4.0	5.2	2.3	3.1	2.4	2.5	2.3	6.7	3.8	6.0
CODA-ALR centered deaths	2.2	2.7	1.5	1.8	2.9	1.6	3.8	2.3	3.2	2.4	2.2	2.5	2.5	2.1
CODA-ALR centered mortality	2.0	2.3	2.0	2.2	3.9	2.7	3.1	2.2	2.9	2.8	2.4	2.5	2.5	1.8
CODA-ILR centered deaths	2.2	2.7	1.5	1.8	2.9	1.6	3.8	2.3	3.2	2.4	2.2	2.5	2.5	2.1
CODA-ILR centered mortality	2.0	2.3	2.0	2.2	3.9	2.7	3.1	2.2	2.9	2.8	2.4	2.5	2.5	1.8
Serfling-Poisson GLM	3.3	4.0	2.3	2.1	2.8	1.8	2.8	2.1	2.2	2.8	1.7	2.3	2.6	2.3
Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures)	3.2	3.9	2.3	1.9	3.3	2.0	2.6	2.1	2.5	2.7	1.6	2.4	2.5	2.3
Lowest error bold, highest error italic.

Mean absolute count error
	DNK		ESP		FIN		FRATNP		GBR_SCO		NOR		SWE
	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M
3-year avg. weekly deaths	205	274	1,632	1,602	186	160	3,305	2,364	149	230	133	124	427	405
3-year avg. weekly mortality	193	296	1,447	1,440	274	263	2,159	1,858	191	217	150	233	467	556
5-year avg. weekly deaths	154	270	2,081	1,446	164	145	3,390	2,334	203	300	104	165	427	375
5-year avg. weekly mortality	213	392	1,519	1,755	341	440	2,158	2,839	228	222	151	417	543	815
CODA-ALR centered deaths	194	242	961	1,189	257	139	3,485	2,120	304	214	150	159	361	289
CODA-ALR centered mortality	175	204	1,324	1,487	337	235	2,797	1,990	270	250	162	156	364	254
CODA-ILR centered deaths	194	242	961	1,189	257	139	3,485	2,120	304	214	150	159	361	289
CODA-ILR centered mortality	175	204	1,324	1,487	337	235	2,797	1,990	270	250	162	156	364	254
Serfling-Poisson GLM	284	358	1,486	1,408	246	152	2,558	1,980	206	253	114	147	375	320
Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures)	280	341	1,471	1,249	287	169	2,408	1,938	235	247	110	153	369	313
Lowest error bold, highest error italic.

Mean percentage error (Bias)
	DNK		ESP		FIN		FRATNP		GBR_SCO		NOR		SWE
	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M
3-year avg. weekly deaths	1.4	1.5	1.9	1.6	0.5	0.8	2.5	1.6	0.9	1.7	0.2	−0.0	−1.0	−0.6
3-year avg. weekly mortality	−0.7	−2.1	−1.1	−1.3	−1.9	−3.0	0.1	−1.4	−0.6	−0.9	−0.9	−3.5	−2.2	−3.7
5-year avg. weekly deaths	1.5	2.4	3.1	2.1	0.9	1.7	3.5	2.2	1.1	2.8	−0.4	−0.8	−1.7	−0.7
5-year avg. weekly mortality	−1.9	−3.6	−2.0	−2.6	−3.4	−5.2	−0.7	−3.0	−1.5	−1.8	−2.3	−6.7	−3.8	−6.0
CODA-ALR centered deaths	1.7	0.8	−0.0	−0.7	−1.0	−0.4	−1.6	−0.6	0.1	−0.4	0.9	−0.1	−1.4	0.1
CODA-ALR centered mortality	0.2	−0.3	−1.4	−1.3	−2.7	−2.4	−1.8	−1.5	−1.0	−1.8	0.6	−1.1	−1.6	−1.0
CODA-ILR centered deaths	1.7	0.8	−0.0	−0.7	−1.0	−0.4	−1.6	−0.6	0.1	−0.4	0.9	−0.1	−1.4	0.1
CODA-ILR centered mortality	0.2	−0.3	−1.4	−1.3	−2.7	−2.4	−1.8	−1.5	−1.0	−1.8	0.6	−1.1	−1.6	−1.0
Serfling-Poisson GLM	2.9	2.5	−0.4	0.2	−1.5	−0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.9	0.4	−1.0	−1.5	−0.9
Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures)	3.1	2.3	−1.4	−0.6	−2.7	−1.6	−1.1	−0.8	−0.4	0.1	0.3	−1.0	−1.5	−0.6
Lowest error bold, highest error italic.

Errors: Weekly death counts weeks 10 to 27

Mean absolute percentage error
	DNK		ESP		FIN		FRATNP		GBR_SCO		NOR		SWE
	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M
3-year avg. weekly deaths	5.6	5.6	4.3	3.7	6.4	5.9	4.5	3.9	6.3	6.0	6.1	5.7	5.5	5.4
3-year avg. weekly mortality	5.7	6.3	4.4	3.7	6.9	6.5	4.1	3.8	6.3	6.0	6.2	6.8	5.8	6.6
5-year avg. weekly deaths	5.4	5.3	4.4	3.5	5.9	5.7	4.7	3.7	6.0	5.8	5.8	5.5	5.4	5.0
5-year avg. weekly mortality	5.7	6.5	4.0	3.6	7.1	7.4	3.9	4.4	6.1	6.1	6.0	8.3	6.2	7.5
CODA-ALR centered deaths	5.3	5.5	3.8	3.4	6.6	5.9	5.4	3.9	7.4	5.7	5.8	5.8	5.1	4.6
CODA-ALR centered mortality	5.4	5.3	3.8	3.6	6.8	6.2	4.9	3.9	6.8	5.8	5.6	6.2	5.2	4.7
CODA-ILR centered deaths	5.3	5.5	3.8	3.4	6.6	5.9	5.4	3.9	7.4	5.7	5.8	5.8	5.1	4.6
CODA-ILR centered mortality	5.4	5.3	3.8	3.6	6.8	6.2	4.9	3.9	6.8	5.8	5.6	6.2	5.2	4.7
Serfling-Poisson GLM	5.1	5.1	3.4	3.1	5.7	4.8	3.7	3.1	5.6	5.4	4.7	4.9	4.7	4.5
Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures)	5.1	5.0	3.5	3.0	6.1	5.1	3.8	3.2	5.6	5.3	4.7	4.9	4.6	4.4
Lowest error bold, highest error italic.

Mean percentage error (Bias)
	DNK		ESP		FIN		FRATNP		GBR_SCO		NOR		SWE
	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M	F	M
3-year avg. weekly deaths	1.1	1.2	1.8	1.5	−0.0	0.4	2.3	1.4	0.5	1.4	−0.1	−0.3	−1.3	−0.9
3-year avg. weekly mortality	−1.0	−2.4	−1.2	−1.4	−2.4	−3.4	−0.0	−1.6	−1.0	−1.3	−1.2	−3.8	−2.6	−4.0
5-year avg. weekly deaths	1.2	2.1	3.0	2.1	0.4	1.3	3.3	2.0	0.6	2.4	−0.8	−1.1	−2.1	−1.0
5-year avg. weekly mortality	−2.2	−4.0	−2.1	−2.7	−3.9	−5.6	−0.9	−3.1	−2.0	−2.2	−2.7	−7.0	−4.1	−6.3
CODA-ALR centered deaths	1.4	0.5	−0.1	−0.7	−1.4	−0.8	−1.6	−0.7	−0.3	−0.7	0.6	−0.4	−1.7	−0.1
CODA-ALR centered mortality	−0.2	−0.6	−1.4	−1.4	−3.2	−2.8	−2.0	−1.6	−1.4	−2.2	0.3	−1.4	−1.9	−1.4
CODA-ILR centered deaths	1.4	0.5	−0.1	−0.7	−1.4	−0.8	−1.6	−0.7	−0.3	−0.7	0.6	−0.4	−1.7	−0.1
CODA-ILR centered mortality	−0.2	−0.6	−1.4	−1.4	−3.2	−2.8	−2.0	−1.6	−1.4	−2.2	0.3	−1.4	−1.9	−1.4
Serfling-Poisson GLM	2.6	2.2	−0.5	0.1	−1.9	−0.7	0.2	0.0	−0.4	0.6	−0.0	−1.3	−1.9	−1.2
Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures)	2.7	2.0	−1.5	−0.7	−3.1	−2.0	−1.2	−0.9	−0.8	−0.3	−0.1	−1.3	−1.9	−0.9
Lowest error bold, highest error italic.

Results by country

DNK

ESP

FIN

FRATNP

GBR_SCO

NOR

SWE