Results across countries

Errors: Cumulative deaths week 10 to 27

Mean absolute percentage error
DNK ESP FIN FRATNP GBR_SCO NOR SWE
F M F M F M F M F M F M F M
3-year avg. weekly deaths 2.3 3.1 2.5 2.4 2.1 1.8 3.5 2.5 1.6 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.9 2.9
3-year avg. weekly mortality 2.2 3.4 2.2 2.2 3.2 3.1 2.3 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.3 3.7 3.2 4.1
5-year avg. weekly deaths 1.7 3.0 3.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 3.6 2.5 2.2 3.3 1.6 2.6 3.0 2.7
5-year avg. weekly mortality 2.5 4.5 2.3 2.6 4.0 5.2 2.3 3.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 6.7 3.8 6.0
CODA-ALR centered deaths 2.2 2.7 1.5 1.8 2.9 1.6 3.8 2.3 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.1
CODA-ALR centered mortality 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.2 3.9 2.7 3.1 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.8
CODA-ILR centered deaths 2.2 2.7 1.5 1.8 2.9 1.6 3.8 2.3 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.1
CODA-ILR centered mortality 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.2 3.9 2.7 3.1 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.8
Serfling-Poisson GLM 3.3 4.0 2.3 2.1 2.8 1.8 2.8 2.1 2.2 2.8 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.3
Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures) 3.2 3.9 2.3 1.9 3.3 2.0 2.6 2.1 2.5 2.7 1.6 2.4 2.5 2.3
Lowest error bold, highest error italic.
Mean absolute count error
DNK ESP FIN FRATNP GBR_SCO NOR SWE
F M F M F M F M F M F M F M
3-year avg. weekly deaths 205 274 1,632 1,602 186 160 3,305 2,364 149 230 133 124 427 405
3-year avg. weekly mortality 193 296 1,447 1,440 274 263 2,159 1,858 191 217 150 233 467 556
5-year avg. weekly deaths 154 270 2,081 1,446 164 145 3,390 2,334 203 300 104 165 427 375
5-year avg. weekly mortality 213 392 1,519 1,755 341 440 2,158 2,839 228 222 151 417 543 815
CODA-ALR centered deaths 194 242 961 1,189 257 139 3,485 2,120 304 214 150 159 361 289
CODA-ALR centered mortality 175 204 1,324 1,487 337 235 2,797 1,990 270 250 162 156 364 254
CODA-ILR centered deaths 194 242 961 1,189 257 139 3,485 2,120 304 214 150 159 361 289
CODA-ILR centered mortality 175 204 1,324 1,487 337 235 2,797 1,990 270 250 162 156 364 254
Serfling-Poisson GLM 284 358 1,486 1,408 246 152 2,558 1,980 206 253 114 147 375 320
Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures) 280 341 1,471 1,249 287 169 2,408 1,938 235 247 110 153 369 313
Lowest error bold, highest error italic.
Mean percentage error (Bias)
DNK ESP FIN FRATNP GBR_SCO NOR SWE
F M F M F M F M F M F M F M
3-year avg. weekly deaths 1.4 1.5 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.8 2.5 1.6 0.9 1.7 0.2 −0.0 −1.0 −0.6
3-year avg. weekly mortality −0.7 −2.1 −1.1 −1.3 −1.9 −3.0 0.1 −1.4 −0.6 −0.9 −0.9 −3.5 −2.2 −3.7
5-year avg. weekly deaths 1.5 2.4 3.1 2.1 0.9 1.7 3.5 2.2 1.1 2.8 −0.4 −0.8 −1.7 −0.7
5-year avg. weekly mortality −1.9 −3.6 −2.0 −2.6 −3.4 −5.2 −0.7 −3.0 −1.5 −1.8 −2.3 −6.7 −3.8 −6.0
CODA-ALR centered deaths 1.7 0.8 −0.0 −0.7 −1.0 −0.4 −1.6 −0.6 0.1 −0.4 0.9 −0.1 −1.4 0.1
CODA-ALR centered mortality 0.2 −0.3 −1.4 −1.3 −2.7 −2.4 −1.8 −1.5 −1.0 −1.8 0.6 −1.1 −1.6 −1.0
CODA-ILR centered deaths 1.7 0.8 −0.0 −0.7 −1.0 −0.4 −1.6 −0.6 0.1 −0.4 0.9 −0.1 −1.4 0.1
CODA-ILR centered mortality 0.2 −0.3 −1.4 −1.3 −2.7 −2.4 −1.8 −1.5 −1.0 −1.8 0.6 −1.1 −1.6 −1.0
Serfling-Poisson GLM 2.9 2.5 −0.4 0.2 −1.5 −0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 0.4 −1.0 −1.5 −0.9
Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures) 3.1 2.3 −1.4 −0.6 −2.7 −1.6 −1.1 −0.8 −0.4 0.1 0.3 −1.0 −1.5 −0.6
Lowest error bold, highest error italic.

Errors: Weekly death counts weeks 10 to 27

Mean absolute percentage error
DNK ESP FIN FRATNP GBR_SCO NOR SWE
F M F M F M F M F M F M F M
3-year avg. weekly deaths 5.6 5.6 4.3 3.7 6.4 5.9 4.5 3.9 6.3 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.4
3-year avg. weekly mortality 5.7 6.3 4.4 3.7 6.9 6.5 4.1 3.8 6.3 6.0 6.2 6.8 5.8 6.6
5-year avg. weekly deaths 5.4 5.3 4.4 3.5 5.9 5.7 4.7 3.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0
5-year avg. weekly mortality 5.7 6.5 4.0 3.6 7.1 7.4 3.9 4.4 6.1 6.1 6.0 8.3 6.2 7.5
CODA-ALR centered deaths 5.3 5.5 3.8 3.4 6.6 5.9 5.4 3.9 7.4 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.1 4.6
CODA-ALR centered mortality 5.4 5.3 3.8 3.6 6.8 6.2 4.9 3.9 6.8 5.8 5.6 6.2 5.2 4.7
CODA-ILR centered deaths 5.3 5.5 3.8 3.4 6.6 5.9 5.4 3.9 7.4 5.7 5.8 5.8 5.1 4.6
CODA-ILR centered mortality 5.4 5.3 3.8 3.6 6.8 6.2 4.9 3.9 6.8 5.8 5.6 6.2 5.2 4.7
Serfling-Poisson GLM 5.1 5.1 3.4 3.1 5.7 4.8 3.7 3.1 5.6 5.4 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.5
Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures) 5.1 5.0 3.5 3.0 6.1 5.1 3.8 3.2 5.6 5.3 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.4
Lowest error bold, highest error italic.
Mean percentage error (Bias)
DNK ESP FIN FRATNP GBR_SCO NOR SWE
F M F M F M F M F M F M F M
3-year avg. weekly deaths 1.1 1.2 1.8 1.5 −0.0 0.4 2.3 1.4 0.5 1.4 −0.1 −0.3 −1.3 −0.9
3-year avg. weekly mortality −1.0 −2.4 −1.2 −1.4 −2.4 −3.4 −0.0 −1.6 −1.0 −1.3 −1.2 −3.8 −2.6 −4.0
5-year avg. weekly deaths 1.2 2.1 3.0 2.1 0.4 1.3 3.3 2.0 0.6 2.4 −0.8 −1.1 −2.1 −1.0
5-year avg. weekly mortality −2.2 −4.0 −2.1 −2.7 −3.9 −5.6 −0.9 −3.1 −2.0 −2.2 −2.7 −7.0 −4.1 −6.3
CODA-ALR centered deaths 1.4 0.5 −0.1 −0.7 −1.4 −0.8 −1.6 −0.7 −0.3 −0.7 0.6 −0.4 −1.7 −0.1
CODA-ALR centered mortality −0.2 −0.6 −1.4 −1.4 −3.2 −2.8 −2.0 −1.6 −1.4 −2.2 0.3 −1.4 −1.9 −1.4
CODA-ILR centered deaths 1.4 0.5 −0.1 −0.7 −1.4 −0.8 −1.6 −0.7 −0.3 −0.7 0.6 −0.4 −1.7 −0.1
CODA-ILR centered mortality −0.2 −0.6 −1.4 −1.4 −3.2 −2.8 −2.0 −1.6 −1.4 −2.2 0.3 −1.4 −1.9 −1.4
Serfling-Poisson GLM 2.6 2.2 −0.5 0.1 −1.9 −0.7 0.2 0.0 −0.4 0.6 −0.0 −1.3 −1.9 −1.2
Serfling-Poisson GLM (no exposures) 2.7 2.0 −1.5 −0.7 −3.1 −2.0 −1.2 −0.9 −0.8 −0.3 −0.1 −1.3 −1.9 −0.9
Lowest error bold, highest error italic.

Results by country

DNK

ESP

FIN

FRATNP

GBR_SCO

NOR

SWE